May 15 Will Reveal the Answer
"The man who ranked among the top performers in 2025 reversed course by -16.2% in a single quarter. Did he hold conviction — or change direction?"
Pershing Square Holdings (PSH) delivered a +20.9% return in 2025 (NAV basis) — outpacing the S&P 500's +17.9%. Then Q1 2026 closed, and the YTD stood at -16.2%. With the S&P 500 down just -4.4% over the same period, Ackman trailed the benchmark by roughly 11.8 percentage points. So what happened?
The Position He Built in Q4 2025
Ackman's defining move in Q4 2025 was a single decision: a $2B new position in META.
Beginning in November 2025, he accumulated shares at an average cost of $625, allocating 11.37% of the portfolio to META. Simultaneously, he trimmed Alphabet by 83% and increased Amazon by 65%. The result: UMG (17%), Alphabet (12%), META (11%), and Amazon (6.5%) — four names commanding 46.5% of the portfolio in a highly concentrated structure.
Ackman's thesis was straightforward: "Meta is the most undervalued AI infrastructure company. Concerns about CAPEX are overblown."
Q1: Concentration Became a Liability
That 46.5% concentration unraveled all at once in Q1.
- Amazon: Announced 2026 CAPEX of $115–135B → free cash flow turn negative fears → -12% in February alone
- Alphabet: Announced 2026 CAPEX of $175–185B → AI over-investment concerns → -9%
- META: Announced $600–650B CAPEX + tariff-driven ad revenue concerns → -5%
- UMG (Universal Music Group): AI copyright uncertainty + streaming monetization doubts → continued weakness
January -2.4%, February -7.7%, March -6.9%. Cumulative quarterly loss: -16.2%. NAV per share closed March at $71.29 — down 18.5% from the 52-week high of $87.33.
Yet He Added to META
This is where Ackman diverges from other investing legends.
Even after March, Ackman continued making public statements in support of META and Amazon. According to April reports, Pershing Square actually increased positions in both names. His rationale: "AI infrastructure investment will generate the greatest returns over the long term, and the current pullback is a buying opportunity."
While Buffett piled up cash, Druckenmiller rotated sectors, and Tepper reduced exposure — Ackman walked in the opposite direction. Who is right will be answered by year-end.
A Complicating Factor: Pershing Square IPO
The timing is notable. Reports emerged in early 2026 of plans to take Pershing Square's management company public via IPO. The firm's valuation is directly tied to AUM and performance. Pursuing an IPO while sitting on a -16.2% drawdown creates structural pressure. How positions are adjusted in the May 13F filing will inevitably be read in the context of IPO timing.
What to Watch in the May 13F
| Question | Implication |
|---|---|
| Did META position increase further? | Conviction intact; doubling down on dip-buying strategy |
| Was META partially trimmed? | Acknowledging loss limits; risk management mode |
| Change in Amazon weighting | Strength of AI CAPEX bet |
| Direction on UMG | Whether AI copyright risk has been abandoned |
| Any new positions added? | Hertz-style contrarian bet in the making |
How one of 2025's top performers absorbed a -16.2% loss will be telling. Holding conviction in the face of losses has always been Ackman's brand. May 15 will show whether that brand still holds.
Data as of: Q4 2025 SEC 13F (filed February 2026). PSH 2025 return: +20.9% (NAV basis; source: PSH Annual Report). Q1 2026 YTD: -16.2% (as of March 31); March monthly return: -6.9%. NAV as of end of March: $71.29.
