BP & Shell Post Record Q1 Trading Profits Fueled by Iran War
Brent crude surges 60% YTD as Iran conflict disrupts supply… refining margins improve. Q1 earnings reports in focus.
Soaring oil prices triggered by the Iran war have driven British energy majors BP and SHEL to record-high crude trading profits in Q1.
BP disclosed in its Q1 trading update on the 14th (local time) that performance in its crude trading division was "exceptional" — a sharp reversal from the weak trading results posted in Q4. Bloomberg reported that "the Iran war has upended global energy markets, delivering a windfall for BP's trading operations."
Brent Crude Surges Over 60% Year-to-Date
The dramatic earnings recovery was driven by the Iran conflict. The hostilities, which began on February 28 with a joint U.S.-Israeli airstrike campaign dubbed 'Operation Epic Fury,' effectively paralyzed commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran retaliated by striking key energy infrastructure across the Persian Gulf region.
As a result, Brent crude surged more than 60% year-to-date, trading at approximately $96 per barrel as of April 17. BP's average realized Brent price in Q1 came in at $81.13 per barrel, up 27% from the prior quarter ($63.73).
Shell Also Reports 'Significantly Higher' Trading Profits
SHEL reported a similar trajectory. In its Q1 pre-close trading update on April 8, SHEL guided that adjusted earnings from its marketing and crude trading segment would be "significantly higher." Refining margins also improved, rising from $14 to $17 per barrel, while chemical plant utilization climbed from 76% to 81–85%. Earnings from the renewables segment surged from $100 million to as much as $700 million.
However, upstream production came in slightly below the prior quarter (1.94 million boe/day) as Middle East tensions disrupted output in Qatar and other producing regions. Non-cash net debt is also expected to rise by $3–4 billion due to higher lease costs associated with increased long-haul shipping routes.
BP Net Debt Rises Ahead of Earnings Release
BP flagged that end-of-Q1 net debt is expected to expand to $25–27 billion, driven by higher working capital requirements stemming from elevated oil prices. That represents an increase of up to $5 billion or more compared to end-Q4 ($22.2 billion), as the oil price spike significantly amplified cash settlement demands in physical trading.
BP's official Q1 earnings will be released on April 28, with SHEL reporting on May 7. Markets are closely watching how both companies will guide on trading profitability beyond Q2, given that oil prices have since pulled back to around $84 per barrel following progress in negotiations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
📊 Related Stocks & ETFs
🛢 Global Oil Majors
· BP plc (NYSE: BP)
· Shell plc (NYSE: SHEL)
· Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM)
· Chevron (NYSE: CVX)
· TotalEnergies (NYSE: TTE)
· ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP)
⚙️ Refining & Trading Plays
· Marathon Petroleum (NYSE: MPC)
· Valero Energy (NYSE: VLO)
· Phillips 66 (NYSE: PSX)
📈 ETFs
· Energy Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLE) — Benchmark energy sector ETF
· Vanguard Energy ETF (NYSE: VDE)
· iShares U.S. Oil & Gas Exploration (NYSE: IEO)
· VanEck Oil Services (NYSE: OIH)
· Fidelity MSCI Energy Index (NYSE: FENY)
Frequently Asked Questions
BP·셸 트레이딩 이익이 어떻게 사상 최대 수준이 됐나요?
이란 전쟁으로 호르무즈 해협 통행이 마비되며 브렌트유가 연초 대비 60% 이상 폭등했습니다. BP의 1분기 평균 브렌트유 수취가는 81.13달러로 전 분기 63.73달러 대비 27% 높아졌고, 셸도 정제마진이 14달러에서 17달러로 개선됐습니다.
유가 급등에도 BP는 왜 순부채가 늘었나요?
고유가에 따른 운전자본 증가로 1분기 말 순부채가 250억~270억 달러로 전 분기 222억 달러 대비 최대 50억 달러 이상 늘어날 전망입니다. 유가 급등이 실물 정산 과정에서 자금 수요를 크게 키운 결과입니다.
셸의 1분기 실적에서 가장 눈에 띄는 부분은?
재생에너지 부문 이익이 1억 달러에서 최대 7억 달러로 7배 뛴 것입니다. 화학부문 가동률도 76%에서 81~85%로 올랐습니다. 다만 카타르 등 일부 업스트림 생산 차질로 생산량은 전 분기 194만 배럴/일 대비 소폭 줄었습니다.
2분기 이후 트레이딩 이익은 어떻게 될까요?
호르무즈 해협 재개 협상 타결 이후 유가가 84달러대로 내려앉으며 1분기 같은 기록적 트레이딩 이익은 어려워 보입니다. 시장은 두 회사가 2분기 가이던스에서 정제마진과 화학부문 회복 흐름을 어떻게 평가할지에 주목합니다.
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