SpaceX IPO June 12: Why Tesla's Expected Rally May Not Last — Operating Margin at 4% and EV Revenue Flat for 3 Years

SpaceX is targeting a June 12 IPO at a $2 trillion valuation. Investors are watching Tesla, expecting Musk's halo to lift it again. Tesla's fundamentals point in the opposite direction.

According to The Wall Street Journal, SpaceX is targeting a Nasdaq IPO on June 12, 2026, with a $2 trillion valuation — potentially the largest public offering in market history. The announcement sent Tesla (TSLA) up 3.28% to $417.38. The logic: Elon Musk runs both companies, so SpaceX's success should carry over. History says this narrative works, at least short-term. The question is whether it lasts.

The Musk Halo Effect — A Historical Pattern

Tesla has long been sensitive to Musk's announcements — robotaxi unveilings, FSD progress, Optimus robot demos have all sparked rallies, followed by harsh corrections when execution disappointed. SpaceX is likely to trade the same way. Reusable rockets, Starlink's satellite internet, and the grand intersection of AI and space exploration make for a compelling story — and compelling stories drive volatility.

Both SpaceX and Tesla sit at the intersection of AI and infrastructure, and their genuine technological ambitions do have long-term potential. However, whether either can offer a sustainable investment thesis from here will hinge on execution.

Adam Spatacco, The Motley Fool

Tesla's Core Business Reality: 4% Operating Margin, 3 Years of Flat Revenue

Behind the SpaceX halo narrative, Tesla's actual metrics tell a different story. EV revenue has been essentially flat for three years, with periods of actual decline, as Chinese competition has forced repeated price cuts and compressed margins. Operating margin, once in the double digits, now sits around 4%. Gross margin is 19.07%.

• Tesla stock price: $417.38 (52-week range: $273.21–$498.83)
• YTD performance: -7%
• Market cap: ~$1.5–1.6 trillion
• Gross margin: 19.07%
• Operating margin: ~4% (down from double digits)
• EV revenue: flat for 3 years, with periods of decline

Energy Storage Shines — EV Does Not

The one bright spot inside Tesla is energy storage. Megapack deployments have grown consistently, and the segment has been a reliable source of profitability — providing real diversification away from EV dependency. It is not yet large enough to offset EV headwinds at the business level, but it is a genuine asset.

The $1.5 Trillion Valuation Problem: AI Success Already Assumed

Tesla's P/E ratio is in triple digits. That valuation already prices in enormous AI-driven success across autonomous driving and humanoid robotics — areas that remain unproven at scale. Regulatory approval for advanced driver assistance, mass-market Optimus deployment, and the enormous capital required for each initiative are all pressure points. SpaceX IPO euphoria layered on top of this only raises the risk of investors buying at an emotion-driven peak.

What to Watch After June 12

A successful SpaceX IPO will almost certainly trigger short-term excitement around Tesla. But Motley Fool analyst Adam Spatacco argues that "chasing momentum stocks is a strategy that comes with outsize risks." Tesla's current valuation already incorporates substantial optimism. Long-term investors are better served focusing on consistent execution and valuation that is supported by actual business progress — not narrative-driven momentum.